Well, denizens of Baristaville: your taxes may be high, your commute may be a bitch, your 100-year-old house may be drafty and require continuous repairs, and you may have to worry about the occasional armed robbery. But at least you don’t live in a big whale of a McMansion out in Mendham or Randolph.
The New York Times had an op ed piece yesterday that’s been tweeted a lot and posted on Facebook about the death of the outer ring suburbs — as baby boomers become empty nesters and successive generations are choosing to live in cities or inner-ring suburbs. The Star Ledger had a similar piece two weeks ago.
According to Christopher Lienberger in the Times, “Many drivable-fringe house prices are now below replacement value, meaning the land under the house has no value and the sticks and bricks are worth less than they would cost to replace.”
If real estate is a zero-sum game, that’s good news for inner-ring us. Yes, our house values have fallen since 2008 too — but not as far or as fast. And if that 20-something who’s boomeranged back to your modest four-bedroom Colonial ever moves out, you just might be able to unload it.
True, it’s not nice to gloat, but the decline of the outer-ring McMansion Belt might feel just slightly satisfying. Feeling smug about your housing choice? Or are you a better person than that?
Tread carefully, Baristas. Mtc has more than a few McMansions.
Tread carefully indeed. I agree with the article though, the prices of the mentioned McMansions can fall a lot further. Not many buyers for them at their current value, over supply, and even at discounts to current value buyers are choosing to stay closer to the city. Montclair is a good example. This is true for homes below a buck though, once you go above that Montclair has fallen pretty hard as well.
This is nothing new because life cycles of growth and decline within the built environment are cyclical. Cities continually expand outward during climbing economic markets and then contract inward once those markets begin to collapse – which is reflected in the current real estate market mentioned in this article.
Including information about sub-prime mortgages is an important factor in understanding the deterioration of McMansions and suburban sprawl. People are just becoming practical when considering housing options. Montclair and Glen Ridge are certainly not excluded from the problems that exist today – people are moving out of these areas in order to reduce property taxes and overall financial liabilities.
Jane Jacobs, who lived through the Great Depression, wrote about this in the 1960′s and her theories are still analyzed in graduate programs today.
Her most well recognized work is “The Death and Life of American Cities”. However, her most recent book and her last before passing away was “Dark Age Ahead” published in 2004.
(The following has been copied from another source)
Jacobs argues that North American civilization showed signs of spiral of decline comparable to the collapse of the Roman empire. Her thesis focused on “five pillars of our culture that we depend on to stand firm,” which can be summarized as the nuclear family (but also community), education, science, representational government and taxes, and corporate and professional accountability.
As the title suggests, her outlook was far more pessimistic than in her previous books. However, in the conclusion she wrote “At a given time it is hard to tell whether forces of cultural life or death are in the ascendancy.
Is suburban sprawl, with its murders of communities and wastes of land, time, and energy, a sign of decay? Or is rising interest in means of overcoming sprawl a sign of vigor and adaptability in North American culture? Arguably, either could turn out to be true.”
This is true for homes below a buck…
I don’t know about you, but in the circles I move in, a buck = $1 billion
buck is slang for $1 million.
What does the picture of the tract houses have to do with McMansions?
Here is a little story. I was having lunch in town here a few months ago and happened to overhear a fellow who was representing BofA on the disposition of a large home, as he talked on his cell phone. I asked him a few questions. In short, the property once appraised for 2.3mm. The bank was on the hook for 1.6mm. They were entertaining an offer well under 1mm. No clue about the owners. They could have either taken a beating, or done a major cash-out and bailed, either way the lender takes a beating. The fellow said that this was a typical scenario…Not pretty, unless you’re the buyer with cash and a long term horizon. Pricing has an enormous idiosyncratic element to it as banks clear inventory in the high end.
Thanks for the bit of perspective and history, Tracy.
But considering all the “FOR SALE” signs around town, and checking Zillow, me thinks we have many in our midsts who are felling some pain.
Sure it might not be the “I-bought-a-McMansion-in-the-outer-ring-and-it’s-now-worth-half-of-what-I-paid” variety, but I’m not sure the “my-house-in-the-inner-ring-is-worth-half-of-what-I-paid-for”is any better.
To this, sadly, far too many homeowners are ****ed.
Interesting rereading this 2004 David Brooks piece about Exurbia, 7 years later.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/09/opinion/09brooks.html
You know, just the other day I told some guy at the pub that he had an idiosyncratic element.
The next thing I remember is , some nurse was asking for my haelthcare card.
buck is slang for $1 million
Or a billion. It depends on who’s talking.
Location, location, location…
A million is a “stick,” in common parlance. And, sorry Cro, I didn’t know that was you!
No worries, deadeye. Things happen.
Tell me this though, since I live in a different world — is “stick” somehow easier to say than “million”?
No Cro, I guess it’s usage is meant to convey membership, or more likely familiarity with, a clique that is obsessed with the accoutrements of materialism and casual oneupmanship.
Well deadeye, as the great Irishman George Bernard Shaw said, all professions are a conspiracy against the laity.
Let those prices fall. The sooner the better. The patient needs a good bleeding before it can heal.
By the time those exurbanites foreclose on their luxury digs, the inner ring luxury apartment in Bloomfield Center will be ready to go. Welcome to the inner circle.
Just an observation: Mendham is to Randolph as Paris is to Calcutta.
No one can predict the future. One can only project based on current demographic trends, and those always change. David Brooks thought the ex-urbs would grow. The tech boom was supposed to enable people to live anywhere since they’d be able telecommute and live in a virtual on line community and yet the reverse happened. When rents skyrocket again (it’s happening) and private schools in urban neighborhoods become out of reach to the upper middle class (it’s happened) people will look affordable places to live. 20 years ago, Williamsburg was a shite hole and now it’s the hippest hood in the country. A decade from now, who knows. Maybe those empty McMansions will be full of students and young people happy to have a cheap place to live with a big enough basement for beer pong. Maybe towns like Montclair will be the trendy spots. Or maybe the entire Eastern seaboard will be under water. Off to eat my left over turkey!
Speaking of Paris, they have some killer suburbs, too.
Really? Now we are gloating (prematurely, in my opinion), because our property values have dropped less than others’? Really?
Correct UMC mom. I wish I never moved to this stupid town. Nothing but liberal hypocrites. And Mr. Lienberger from the Times needs to learn Economics 101: “the land under the house has no value”. So if you knock the house down, you can get land for free? Really? How do I get in on that deal?
The suburban fringe has been pushed so far out by all sorts of housing – middle-class tract housing and huge, expensive starter castles – that Greater New York stretches into Pennsylvania and could theoretically bump into Greater Cleveland as that stretches east into the Keystone State. People need to move back to the cities, which were founded where they are because of their proximity to water. In Michigan, you have the absurdity of Detroit becoming a vast vacant lot with a house or two here and there while the suburbs continue to expand outward. And Detroit’s once-exclusive Brush Park neighborhood is proof that today’s posh suburbs can be tomorrow’s slums. McMansion developments could suffer a similar fate.
:Nothing but liberal hypocrites”- essen
Correction essen, this town is comprised of liberal hypocrites, but also liberal non-hypocrites, moderates of varying dispositions, conservatives who are earnest ( some who post here on Baristanet regularly) , and at least one conservative named essen who is too stupid to look around and size things up accurately. You do know that Obama didn’t get every vote in town.
And yes, essen, it is possible for land to have no value, depending on use. If the cost of land is, say, free, and it costs 500,000 to build a house that sells for 495,000, the land actually is worthless for houses. It might, however, be good for hay or pumpkin production ( market conditions do vary) or, even better, a windswept rifle range for folks like you to shoot at bulls-eyes taped over with stick-figure caricatures of people you don’t like while you scream wildly at the sky, mouth a-foaming.
Spiro, ad hominem attack much?
Try and wrap your brain aqround this, without the liberal knee-jerk reaction to my criticism of some ignorant NYT reporter: Just because the replacement cost of a home is more than than the market value does not make it worthless, any more than the land it sits on is worthless. If that was the case, most of the homes in Montclair would be worthless. Do you understand now?
And no, I don’t have a gun, and I don’t hate liberals, even if they refuse to learn from their mistakes.
I used to think those exurban McMansions would be perfect for the senior
commune as an alternative to an expensive nursing or assisted living home. Collectively rent-a-nurse, put the caretaker over the garage or basement.
Problem is that they don’t have a good walkability factor — access to a grocery store after your license has been taken away. Though I suppose the caretaker could pile everyone into the minivan & head off to the supermarket.
Well, I can get on with my chores now that I’ve had my laugh for the day.
A person who writes “I wish I never moved to this town. Nothing but liberal hypocrites” complaining about “ad hominem” attacks.
Priceless!
To paraphrase Avenue Q, everyone’s a little bit hypocritical.
An ad hominem (Latin for “to the man” or “to the person”), short for argumentum ad hominem, is an attempt to negate the truth of a claim by pointing out a negative characteristic or belief of the person supporting it.[1] Ad hominem reasoning is normally described as a logical fallacy
Sure essen, “stupid town” “liberal hypocrites”.
Ad hominem could be your middle name this morning.
Too busy practicing your latin to notice?
Hey, it’s not even December 1. Perhaps by Christmas you’ll get your cheer back.
There is nothing like kid’s sports to serve as a catalyst for familiarizing oneself with the formerly farmland, then ex-urban, now full blown communities of central and western NJ. Absent nearby employment opportunities, the first ex-urban pioneers (at least those with whom I’m familiar) were essentially willing to undertake hellish commutes in return for significantly larger and more affordable homes, lower taxes, and the perception of community. Perception being the operative word, since the neighborhood was a farmer’s field the prior year, and the nearest semblance of a town was five miles away. Needless to say, these aren’t people whose weekend is ruined if the Sunday Times arrives without the Arts and Leisure section.
Over the past decade or two since the phenomenon began, it appears that many of these disparate outposts have coalesced into real communities. Towns that people that grew up in NJ have never heard of. These communities that have had to build major infrastructure and hire teachers, police and firefighters, and pay for it all too. There goes the tax advantage. Any remaining open space appears to have been relegated to malls. Large malls, small malls, strip centers, and on and on.
These malls and their communities are connected to, and any outside access is achieved, by means of divided highways that were obviously designed in collusion with people involved in the manufacture of traffic lights, which are placed roughly every two hundred yards. The traffic in these areas can rattle the most seasoned veteran of Rt 3 rush hour traffic, and leave one wishing that they were stuck on 495 behind a stalled bus.
So far, I’ve seen nothing remotely idyllic to recommend the ex-urban lifestyle. That is unless living in a soulless box shoehorned onto a treeless plain, in the middle of nowhere, cheek by jowl with similar edifices, and nothing but a panoramic view into your neighbor’s windows is your thing.
Here, at least, where my home was long ago carved out of some large parcel of land that some no-doubt lamented the development of, we’ve got lots to complain about, but we’ve got soul.
Well put deadeye. But the garage door manufacturers, asphalt plants, and sprinkler installers did pretty well.
“I don’t know about you, but in the circles I move in, a buck = $1 billion.”
Stop going around in circles.
Kit, Be very careful what you wish for. Under one or another of the anti-discriminatory housing acts, operators of group homes have been successful at buying residential properties in suburban neighborhoods like McLean VA, not exactly a poverty pocket, and establishing group residences. These are typical houses in family neighborhoods that were never intended to house anything but a family, have no industrial kitchen or sanitation facilities, etc. The attendants wander the neighborhood smoking in their scrubs past mothers with strollers while the occasional hearse has been seen loading a dead body in full view of a child. Now I know that some here will see this as a good thing, but it is a gross violation of zoning rights, a finger in the eye of the community, and a perverse interpretation of laws written to protect deserving people against discrimination. And it could happen here! How do you think that would impact property values? It would be all over but the crying…
I’m obviously having a problem getting to work today.
Take it easy on old essen, spiro. He/she was able to locate Wikipedia, after all.
So now I’ve had a laugh AND a Latin lesson — my first since I was 16.
It’s shaping up to be a great day!
Deadeye, the points you make are perfectly valid, although in my dense little neighborhood, we have cigarette smoking strollers and the occasional hearse without any group homes. However, I was speaking out of an examination of personal alternatives. Given the likelihood that with what I’ve saved, and what I’ve lost in the market, I’m a candidate for a trailer park in a swamp, a senior hippie commune has a pallatable ring to it. Just not in the exurbs — closer to civilization. Maybe on your block.
The traffic on 80W and 287 that one has to sustain to reach the NcMansion Belt is monsterous and horrifying. Apparently many are unaware of this nightmare when choosing to live in such places. It seems to be getting worse and worse. How could anyone want to live like that?
frankgg, having spoken to Staten Islanders, I see a kind of unpleasant parallel. The current mcmansion belt growing out of practically nothing is not too different than Staten Island was back in the 1960′s and 1970′s – a place that was ripe for the rapid erection of ticky tacky junk. The Staten Islanders I knew back in the 1980′s told me that for many, it was simply the idea that the area was all white and that the schools would therefore be better, and the streets safer. Their words, not mine.
I’m with essen, the Latin scholar.
Utinam mihi nunquam ad id oppidum stupidi.
But Croiagusinam, where’s your long winded and condescending definition?
I’m working on it, kit! I’m working on it!
(Damn impatient liberal hypocrite!)
Whiter, better, safer. Hope they found it.
Oh get over yourselves! Home is where the heart is after all. Commute, taxes, trees whatever! One of my children built a MacM in central Jersey – horse country – easy access to the beach – nice schools etc. It’s a far cry from my childhood brownstone and cobblestone streets and the community in which I I now reside. But sure as heck don’t turn up my nose at their choice.
The downward slide of property value has hit every community. But since I’ve owned my manse for tons of years I’m way ahead.
Kit, I’ve often though about a “group” home or compound of older people who have limited means (after having amassed what should have been adequate). Maybe we can find a small college town with low taxes and have 2 or three large homes in a neighborhood with a shared garden, shared kitchen duties etc. ?
This is why I think McMansions could work well as dorms or some other kind of group living.
All the bedrooms have their own bathrooms and the kitchens are large enough – along with great room dining areas – to be institutional.
There’s no real home ownership in the US. What does it mean to own a home yet have to pay a town $10k+ in taxes to live there? Even when the mortgage is paid, there’s still rent to be paid to the town coffers.
Sorry, DagT, I think you’re great, but I need to stick to my guns and continue to turn my nose up in disdain of the concept of McMansionland ( my wife is a bigger snob than me, in this regard, so…) , even if I am sure your family is lovely.
I know we’ve disagreed over vinyl siding in the past, you and I, but I think I’ll continue to disdain that hideous invention as well. Foam stucco. too. Oversized arched windows displaying outsized chandeliers too, while I’m at it.
But we can find common ground in our love of horse country, split rail fences, farm stands, rushing streams, stands of pine and hickory, Jersey fresh produce, deer prancing through the long shadows of late afternoon, spacious skies, purple mountains’ majesty, fruited plains, and amber waves of grain.
I’m with you, JG. Back in the day, I lived in a house with my future husband and 5 other people, 3 dogs, 2 parrots and a cat in Rochester, NY. We were all in our mid ’20′s, between college and career, and it was the golden age of our childhood. I still giggle at the thought of grown men shouting ‘Ole Ole In-Free!’ during a house-wide game of hide and seek — someone hiding in the fireplace. Sunday dinners usually had about 14 people and were legendary. In spite of our somewhat counter-cultural appearance in a middle class neighborhood, we shoveled elderly neighbors’ walks, returned lost and addled old men to their wives, and really were not bad neighbors, as long as one didn’t look inside the refrigerator. It’s a viable and possibly more pleasant alternative to sweating it out in solitary poverty. Come to think of it, it would work as well for the ’20 & ’30 somethings who can’t afford their own homes, as well as the seniors.
Thats terrible Spiro….in that case, they deserve the traffic!
as long as the govt will lend 30 to 1 with fha limits at 625k in the wealthier counties there is somewhat of a floor to these values because there is an endless supply of people willing to take that leverage. One could buy a 645k home with a 20k down payment….which is nothing but an extremely mispriced option in favor of the buyer. even if we are increasing demand at the margin it definitely serves to prop up prices.
Oh Spiro, I know you hate vinyl, but it was all I could do to get the stained wood trim I wanted inside (and NO it’s not quarter-sawn, either), oak floors and little roofs over my back doors. And I had to compromise somewhere… hm, central air… or wood siding… air…siding…OK OK I’m Sorry!! I got the vinyl. Have to say, I love it.
My wood porch looks nice, with its fancy custom designed pillars a’la bungalow style, and if you stand at the bottom of my street to admire it then you’ll never know the house is vinyl.
I think it is inevitable we will be hearing about
Mccrackhouses. I will be trademarking the term
bebop is right. I work with someone from another country who cannot believe that even if I own my own home, I still have to pay the town what amounts to another rent to live there.
This is why we will likely be living in another country, unless Kit and I can find a low tax area in the US that we’d want to live in. (Arkansas isn’t quite what I have in mind).
Kay, you chose your priorities, credit to you for taking time out to do so.
But I’m shocked! Shocked! that you love that PVC siding stuff. Petroleum laced with chlorine.
(watched my Casablanca DVD the other day, can’t help but paraphrase Captain Renault )
JG, I’m hearing that expatriate stuff more and more these days (speaking of Casablanca). Pretty soon we’ll be seeing huge Mike Huckabee rallies on Broadway and West 86th Street, incessant Tea Party victory parties in the West Village, and overpriced gun, Bible and corn-whiskey keyless entry storage rooms featured as an amenity in high-end Chelsea condos.
I wonder what the state of all of these new homes, with their cheap construction, will look like in 50 years or 100 years. My house has been here since 1840 and she does not look a day over 100.
I suppose the houses will look very much like the Ikea furniture I see falling apart curbside. Disposable furniture, disposable homes?
Kay I don’t know what to say. Please tell me you did not install those “Bathtub Fitters”.
Holly….you’re so right to raise the question about what these houses (or the Siena, for that matter) will look like in 50 years New LEED windows….also, other LEED construction items like roofing membranes…. have a garantee of 10 to 20 years only. They then have to be removed and replaced because you cannot re paint them or easilly repair them. They’ll wind up in dumps….how ecological is that? Your 1840′s house’s original windows can be scraped, primed, re glazed, re puttied and repainted….they are more LEED because they’ll last 100s of years….
BTW…the LEED argument about window insulation dosent hold water because 40% of a heated building’s heat is lost through the roofing…NOT the windows…..
Dear Holly, Heck NO!
We quite painstakingly laid out tile for both tubs, mixing and matching ad nauseum… The original part of my house is turn of the century too, including those 2x4s that really were 2×4. Some of the beams even have bark on the sides! The windows could not be saved (within our budget, anyway) but we did get wooden new construction windows. She looks worlds better now imho, though Frank and Spiro prolly wouldn’t agree, And your girl is indeed quite beautiful (if I am thinking of the right place). The nice part about vinyl is that she can take a bath once in a while and come out like shiny new!
Now, roofing membranes… hm, do I have that? It’s timberline over plywood and, I think, tar paper? Ugh, hopefully I don’t have to remove the whole thing in 20 years!
JG, earlier this year I went to Ashville, NC, which has been touted over & over again as one of the 10 best places in the US to retire, and praised as the Paris or San Francisco of the south. Property taxes are very low. I found it to be more like the Morristown of the south, but I did have the pleasure of hearing our bus tour guide (from New Jersey) inform us that George Vanderbilt derived his wealth from opera.